Everything as expected

1. On June27, when it was learned that last May’s inflation was 1.37 per cent, I forecast in this column that inflation for June would be between 1.27 and 1.29 per cent. On July 21, DSEC reported that Macau’s inflation was indeed 1.27 per cent in June! In the last seven months I have been […]

1. On June27, when it was learned that last May’s inflation was 1.37 per cent, I forecast in this column that inflation for June would be between 1.27 and 1.29 per cent.
On July 21, DSEC reported that Macau’s inflation was indeed 1.27 per cent in June!
In the last seven months I have been able to make these monthly mathematical predictions with some accuracy, using an interval of variation of only three centesimal points.
The only major difficulty in this exercise is to advance a number for the year-end rate of inflation!
However, in May, I predicted that inflation in Macau at the end of the year may reach between 0.9 and 1.73 percentage points.
In June, I tightened this interval a little bit more, arguing that it could fall between 1.24 and 1.67 percentage points.
Now, I am again tightening this interval, forecasting that the inflation rate in December will be in the range of 1.27 to 1.59 per cent, against 2 per cent by the IMF and 2.1 per cent by our University of Macau.
Last but not least, I also guessed that inflation in 2017 was likely to reach its lowest value in July, and in August it would begin to enter an upward phase.
Of course, if nothing unusual happens.
I am still sticking to my forecasts!
2. Much more easy to forecast than the inflation rate, is the so-called accumulated billions of losses and debts of the Macau Jockey Club!
Why is it taking the Macau Government so long to give these generous people a medal of dedication or altruism for the services they have rendered for so long (if I am not wrong, from 1978) and for their willingness to continue to do such business mainly to the benefit of the diversification of our economy, spending rivers of money so easy to forecast will be lost?
Wow!
We are talking about accumulated losses of more than MOP4 billion and MOP73 million, so big that nowadays the share capital of the company is negative to the tune of MOP1,182,981.582, when it should be MOP3 billion positive. The assets have shrunk to only MOP240,632,788 as compared with liabilities of MOP1,314,244,540!
Why don’t these people deserve a medal?
If the government is not able to give to them a medal, why not the remaining land?
If not the remaining land, give them a new concession to replace the one that will expire in August!
And don’t worry about the commercial code and how and who will pay their bills!
Who cares about this?
They deserve it!

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