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Filling the skies

A report from Sanford C. Bernstein estimates that outbound international passengers flying from mainland China to the MSAR are estimated to reach 34 million in 2025

The amount of airline outbound international passengers going from mainland China to Macau is estimated to grow from 22 million this year to 34 million by 2025, brokerage firm Sanford C. Bernstein stated in a report.
According to the report, outbound international passengers from China – excluding Hong Kong or Macau – will grow from 72 million in 2016 to 175 million in 2025, with passenger numbers traveling to Hong Kong reaching 51 million in 2025.
‘China will be the largest growth market in aviation by far, adding more passengers to the global market during that time frame than the rest of Asia combined. By 2025 the centre of gravity in aviation, will have passed from North America, to Europe, on to China,’ the report stated.
Of the 100 million additional passengers departing from mainland China, 10 million are expected to head to Europe, with Bernstein analysts estimating the China-Europe airline passenger transport business will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 12 per cent for the next 8 years.
‘In our view, the majority of that growth (up to 75 per cent) will be captured by Chinese carriers, and only 25 per cent by European carriers – most likely Air France-KLM and Lufthansa Group,’ noted the report.
The report considers that any global airline hoping to grow in the future will have to ‘think long and hard’ about how it will gain exposure to the Chinese market.
This future strategy would have to take into account how the airline can deploy its capacity to China, given regulatory, infrastructure and political constraints; how to build viable partnerships, alliances or even joint ventures with the Chinese airlines; and how it could protect its market share in the traffic flows to China.
Starting from 25 July of this year, Chinese airline Beijing Capital Airlines started operating four weekly flights between Macau and Beijing, in order to connect with its direct flight between Beijing and Lisbon.