GDP: 3.9, 6.3 or 7.1 per cent? | 30 doubts for 2019

The consensus among institutes that make macroeconomic forecasts is that the wealth produced in Macau next year will be lower than in 2018. That is, GDP will fall. How much, it’s hard to say at this point.

The Economist Intelligence Unit believes the economy will grow 3.9 per cent (versus the 5.8 per cent anticipated this year) while the International Monetary Fund points to 6.3 per cent (the same this year – last update). Finally, a macroeconomic study presented by the University of Macau (UM) is even more optimistic, forecasting GDP growth of 7.1 per cent, some 1.2 per cent less than what it predicts for 2018. 

UM researchers believe “economic uncertainty is on the horizon,” as the US Federal Reserve System is expected to raise its interest rate continually and that Donald Trump’s Administration will create trade frictions between the US and other countries. The report also notes that “Mainland China’s economy will slow down, and the central government is trying to use accommodative monetary and fiscal policies to stabilise economic growth. These may affect Macau’s economic growth in 2019.” 

Which is why the Secretary for Economy and Finance, Lionel Leong, has warned that due to external factors the local economy could pass from a forecasted rate of “stable and positive’ to ‘stable with possible changes.”