Macau Opinion | On track or not, continued

This time, we were reassured that delays and cost overruns were things of the past. Or, at least, are now minor issues. When challenged on the matter for the  “hundredth time” (well, maybe I exaggerate), the Secretary claimed just “one or two projects” still had such problems.

One can show some understanding for the Secretary position here. He has been there often; indeed, some questions seem more part of a ritual than an honest request for clarification.

But the response also came short. It was not very precise, and that is not too helpful either. For starters, it should be possible to determine if it is one or two projects, or whatever happens to be precisely the case. And nothing, it appears, was said about the extent of the deviations, or their impact on the overall construction and operations plans. More effort could surely be made on both sides, Government and Assembly, to make these debates more illuminating.

Further, admitting the media reported the incident accurately, to recommend that the legislators consult the website before asking questions borders the objectionable regarding a proper institutional relationship or the communication duties of public officials.

That issue aside, the statements provide small comfort, even assuming operations will start sometime later this year. First, it will come eight years later than promised. Secondly, it will be a partial opening, possibly at a lower than expected capacity. The total cost is approaching five times the initial estimate. Furthermore, we don’t know about the layout and price of the Macau-side track, or the Taipa extensions announced meanwhile. No one risks a guess about if and when any of those segments will start operating.

And then we have the operational costs, which have never been appropriately evaluated. One legislator advanced an expected loss of around MOP900 million per year, that is, about MOP2.5 million per day. The figure was not substantiated, but that is a discussion we would do well to take seriously, sooner rather than later.