The Macau's GDP has grown again!

Macau’s GDP statistics for the first quarter of 2017 reflect the expected growth trend. In the same quarter of last year the economy fell almost in the same way. In nominal terms, it has decreased 10.6 per cent, to now grow 10.9 per cent. Comparing the value of the first quarter of 2017 with the […]

Macau’s GDP statistics for the first quarter of 2017 reflect the expected growth trend.
In the same quarter of last year the economy fell almost in the same way.
In nominal terms, it has decreased 10.6 per cent, to now grow 10.9 per cent.
Comparing the value of the first quarter of 2017 with the value of the previous quarter, the economy contracted by about 5.6 per cent.
So it grew a lot because the base had fallen immensely.
In real terms, the economy grew practically the same (10.3 per cent), with an implicit deflator, that is, the ratio between nominal and real GDP, practically equal to one hundred (101.7).
When this value is 100, it means that the price effect was not felt and therefore the real value was equal to the nominal.
I do not like the change in the process of calculating GDP from a fixed base of reference applied over many years to a mobile base (chained base).
This began to happen in Macau from the moment the gaming figures started to be deflated in statistics in real value.
In the past, the value of the gaming figures was the same in nominal and real figures.
Which was, of course, wrong!
This change happened after my criticisms about the calculation process used.
The gaming figures were, and are, the variable that weighs most in GDP!
From then on, the chained base was used and every two years the base of comparison changed.
I have many doubts about these deflators.
It is not about the honesty of the Statistics Service (DSEC). For sure, it is not!
I just do not get it!
My recommendation is: someone should stop a little and check the meaning of the numbers, before publishing them.
Too many publications can jeopardize the quality of the data collection and its treatment.
The government has to pay more attention to the Statistics Department!
Higher real growth than nominal growth in normal periods is difficult to explain, and in this first quarter this happened in four of the eight GDP variables.
And this “phenomenon” happened in 16 groups or variables taken individually!
You see, just to give an example, the real growth of the export of transport services was 46.5 per cent and the nominal growth was only 2.6 per cent.
These exports were worth MOP1.258 billion in nominal value and MOP1.681 billion in real value!
What has happened?
Anyway, let’s stop to think.
I cannot understand!

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