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ISSUE 96 - Apr 2012
 
 
What are your expectations for the gross gaming revenue growth of Macau’s gaming industry in 2012?
Decline
Growth above 20 percent
Growth from 10 to 20 percent
Stagnation
 
 

August 2010 Economic Trend


Posted: 8/26/2010 12:41:44 PM
Rating:     0% ( votes)
  

Introduction

Since 2004, Macau’s economy and population have grown quickly. An often-ignored dimension of that growth is the geographical one. That is, the city has also grown physically. The possible impacts that growth has had on the environment have received little attention, nor have they been subjected to a proper analysis. In this first look, we discuss some relevant indicators to see if there are identifiable changes or emerging patterns.

Green areas and water

The first dimension of Macau’s growth is spatial. The city’s area has increased by about one quarter in the past  decade, following in the footsteps of a long line of land reclamation projects.

One interesting question relates to the availability of green areas, usually an indicator of urban and environmental quality. On face value, the available figures (Table 1) seem to show improvements, both in absolute terms and per capita.

A second look highlights some issues. By converting areas from square kilometres to hectares we come up with a measure that is somewhat easier to visualise. As a reference, a hectare is roughly equivalent to the area of one football field and a square kilometre is about the area of 100 football fields.

After their conversion, the figures raise additional questions.

In Table 2, we see the changes on a year-on-year basis.

First, the increases in total area and green area seem somewhat unrelated.

Second, the stated and significant changes to the city’s green area, in absolute terms, seem difficult to associate with the daily experience of the average resident. There is also a break in the data for 2005. It seems estimates were not possible due to construction activities, an explanation hard to accept!

Finally, on face value, there are doubts about the consistency in the measurement criteria.

For water consumption, the results do not yield remarkable trends. That is, there are no obviously noticeable changes in the patterns of consumption of either households or government, and the increase in business consumption is noticeable during periods of greater construction intensity, as would be expected.

Solid waste and recycling

The generation of solid waste is a common by-product of most economic activities. Construction is closely correlated with waste production and the jump in the amount of waste generated from 2005 is not surprising (Table 4).

Throughout the period, the amount of waste generated by business dwarfs that produced by both government and households, whose patterns of rubbish generation seem stable.

That much can be seen in Table 5, where we have ignored government activities, which are mostly insignificant in this analysis, and have separated building or construction activities from other business activities. The growth indices using 2004 as the base year, show the enormous contribution to waste production that the building sector makes.

In the case of other businesses and households, the growth registered is actually below what might be expected, bearing in mind the recent growth in population and disposable income. In the case of households, waste production seems to be decreasing, a fact that, should future figures confirm it, suggests behavioural changes.

The final table shows the changes in recycling activities. They show a generally sustained increase in the quantities of the three types of materials recycled: paper, metal and plastic. The increase in the volume of paper recycled is remarkable and would suggest the need for deeper scrutiny.

It is important to note that recycled materials represent a small percentage of the total waste generated, illustrated by the fact that this table is in kilograms and the other tables are measured in tonnes. Most of the waste is either sent to landfill, incinerated or unaccounted for.

by José I. Duarte
Economist /Macau Business
Senior Analyst Data source: DSEC Charts and graphics in our paper edition and MB online browseable

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