Demography 1

Demography is probably – and one might say, regretfully – the most frequently ignored of the social sciences. Among the reasons for that is possibly the fact that many demographic changes only make their effects felt in the long or very long term, which makes them poor competitors for the attention of decision makers dealing, more often than not, with matters and events that are perceived as urgent. Let us, nonetheless, take stock of some of the major demographic variables for Macau and check briefly what they can tell us about this economy and its future. First, let us review the overall population growth.

As Table 1 shows, during the 70s the population declined slightly, but started to pick up again by the end of that decade. In the next 20 years it went steadily up by some 200,000 persons, and in the recent casino boom it gained an additional 100,000. This is certainly a significant change, which has mostly been fed my migrant inflows. As we will see in another table, natural growth has been comparatively modest. These patterns suggest that the social make-up of Macau has changed significantly. That change is also reflected in a socially very important aspect – the sex balance.

Table 2 shows that for most of the period the female-to-male ratio has been climbing to more usual levels, correcting the very abnormal unbalance displayed throughout the 70s. It should be noted that such a trend was severely reverted during the early years of the new casino era, but appears to have picked up again.

Table 3 unmistakably shows that the population is aging at a relatively quick pace (available age composition data shown starts in 1990). The structure was relatively stable in the first half of the period, but since then the share of the younger generation has been contracting and the cumulative share of those classes including people over 45 years has been increasing sharply.

Demography 2

The previous tables suggest that demographic changes are not favorable to long-term growth. In particular, the effects in the labour market will be significant.

Table 1 shows that natural growth has been very modest for the last decade and has been declining since the mid-80s. That means that we are reaching the point where the effects of the 80s ‘baby boom’ in the labour market will stop being felt. The number of people reaching working age will decline noticeably and the ratio between those leaving and entering the labour market will deteriorate significantly.  That is, unless population inflows compensate for this trend, the demographic dynamics will start to put serious strains on economic activities and will be an obstacle to sustained growth.

A positive note on the social impact of the local demographic trends, is however highlighted in Table 2. Contrary to what is the case in other Chinese regions, the sex ratio at birth does not show a marked distortion and is well within the usual levels found when no discrimination bias is present. Unless caused by unbalanced immigration flows – and the migration patterns of the middle of the current decade may cause some concern – the region may be spared the social strains that are expected in other regions as a result of serious sex imbalances.

In Table 3 we look to another indicator that suggests significant changes in values and social behaviour, reflected in marriage and divorce patterns. (We take 1990 as the reference point in this series, as again, the early 70’s have a distinct ‘out-lier’ character and, if taken as a base, might distort the analysis. The variable shown in Table 3 is a growth index). After the marriage spikes of the mid-80s and early 90s, marriage levels have mostly leveled out. Note however, that the recent boom appears to have encouraged a new spike of marriages. On its side, the number of divorces has increased steadily since 1990, with their relative frequency increasing five-fold in 20 years. It is too early however to assess how the combination of these trends will impact on fertility rates and average size of families, and ultimately, on the labour market in the longer term.

by José I. Duarte
Economist /Macau Business
Senior Analyst Data source: DSEC
Charts and graphics in our paper edition and MB online browseable