In mid-September Guangdong Province’s Development and Reform Commission launched a programme of research which it hopes will form a plan for the future of the Pearl River Delta – and the launch brought what looks like an unwelcome surprise for Macau.
The plan was entitled “Guangdong plus Hong Kong”. There was no mention of the casino city. Observers are puzzled because Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau cooperated in the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) and Pan-PRD Regional Cooperation.
They wonder, has Macau been excluded and if so, why?

National strategy

Led by Du Ying, the Vice President of the National Development and Reform Commission, 170 scholars and experts from various Chinese Government departments and commissions, visited Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan and Zhuhai to carry out a survey aimed at mapping out a 30-year plan under the Reform and Open Policy.
The core function of the policy is the economic integration of South China and wider South East Asian region. Observers believe that planning for the region has been raised to the level of a national strategy.
Figures show that PRD gross production reached RMB1,374,213 in the first half 2008, a 12.7 percent increase on 2007, consistent with the equivalent figure for the whole nation of 9.4 percent.
The Nanfang Metropolis News columnist Jin Xinyi, observed: “Playing the PRD Region’s core role in the economic integration of South China and South East Asia is the essential point of the nation’s strategy. The strategic cooperative partnership with ASEAN is the basis of China’s global strategy.
“In China’s ASEAN strategy, the major parts are played by Guangxi and Yunnan. Nowhere else is worthy to be the true leaders in the South China Sea Economic Zone except for Guangdong and Hong Kong.’’
According to the Development and Reform Commission’s analysis, Guangdong and Hong Kong are more attractive to ASEAN states, therefore the region’s strategy must be in the form of “Hong Kong plus Guangdong”, with the combination of Hong Kong and Shenzhen as the hub of the South China Sea Region, and Guangdong as the hinterland.
Jin also predicts that propelled by Hong Kong and Guangdong, the economic integration of China and SE Asia will be deepened, with the latter becoming China’s most valuable strategic “back court”.

No Macau?

Information available on the programme shows that only Guangdong and Hong Kong are mentioned but Macau, also a PRD jurisdiction, seems to have slipped off the map. What has happened?
Lawrence Siu, president of the Macau Development Strategy Research Centre, told Macau Business’s sister publication Business Intelligence that Guangdong Province should not have neglected Macau: “We should be one of the parties.
“It is impossible that Macau should be excluded when discussing PRD issues, especially in the planning of its reform and development.’’
The PRD has become a landmark of regional economic development since the launch of the Reform and Open Policy in the early 1980s and has recently graduated to become one of the nation’s major economic zones competing with the Bohai Region and the Yangtze Delta.
The Pan-PRD cooperation scheme of 2003 and the launch of the CEPA in 2004 provided policy advantages and development space and the recently implemented Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge project has pushed the region to forefront of the China’s transport development.
Cheong Chok Man, Adviser to the Office of Secretary for Economy and Finance would only say: “Hong Kong and Macau have been cooperating in the PRD.’’ He refused to comment further.
There is no argument that Guangdong needs to consider and take responsibility for the nation’s wider strategic interests. But Macau’s role in the process needs to be defined.
Macau’s Assistant Director of the Research Centre for Sustainable Development Strategies of the Government, Chiang Wa Fong is not worried. She believes Macau will not be neglected in the realm of regional cooperation, quite simply, it cannot stand alone.
An article in Macau Daily on October 24 seemed to clarify things somewhat.
Qiu Shan, Director of the Institute for International Economy Studies of Guangdong Province Academy of Social Science, who took part in the planning work for the development of Pearl River Delta region, told a seminar in Guangzhou that national planning will “fully support Macau to strengthen its position as the international centre for tourism and leisure’’.
Qiu’s comments make it clear that the central government will include Macau’s development in overall planning for the Pearl River Delta, but it has taken his recent statement to make clarify matters.

Huge PRD capacity

The aggregated combined economic volume of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau has amounted to RMB4.7 billion over the past thirty years, making up one-fifth of that of the whole nation.
Between 1979 and 1999, 70 percent of foreign investment came from Hong Kong, a perfect example of cooperation, Chiang says.
Wang Yang, member of the CCP’s Politburo and the General Secretary of the CCP’s Committee for Guangdong Province has declared that further cooperation between Guangdong and Hong Kong and Macau needs a global view and strategic thinking.
According to Wang, during most of last year Macau was engaging in regional cooperation and research and the central government has fully supported this research. A final decision has not been reached but in order to establish an economic cycle, all parties need to carry out more investigations and research – forming a cooperative system via linked to the Central Government.
Chiang says integration of the regional economy includes functional and systematic integration, in other words, dovetailing regional co-operation with the constitutional demands of the “One Country, Two Systems’’ model.
“We are now at the stage of research, the purpose of which is to find out a proper breakthrough point for cooperation suitable for mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau,’’ says Chiang. In this way disagreements can be eradicated and a regional cooperation model formed. Then it will be the Central Government’s role to lead.
After many years of efforts by Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau, a jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction direction for economic development has been formed.
Guangdong’s focus is trade-and-economy, Hong Kong’s finance-oriented and Macau’s tourism and gaming. Cooperation between the Pearl River Delta and Macau became more frequent and obvious after moves made by the Central Government in recent years.
In other words, because of recent economic developments and the huge devlopment of tourism and gaming, Macau is well-placed for regional cooperation.
Chiang emphasises that Macau has a positive attitude towards regional cooperation because of support from the Central Government.
Soon Macau will issue a consultation document “Outline for Macau Urban Concept Plan” which contains much discussion and valuable opinions. This process must take into account wider regional and national development, says Chiang.

Ready and able

The “Outline for Macau Urban Concept Plan” calls for a strengthening of co-operation between Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau – and is the key to Macau’s future development.
“When considering spatial arrangement and reclaimed land from the sea, Macau’s government should take a full view of the issue of regional and national involvement,’’ Chiang says.
Sio believes blueprints from each of the three need to be finalised before co-operation can move forward meaningfully.
He also says the reason why Macau did not directly take part in the research and establishment of the Programme for the Planning of the PRD Regional Reform and Development is that Macau’s achievements in the gaming industry surpasses development in other areas so was ignored by Guangdong Province.
Macau’s gaming industry has stimulated development in conventions, exhibitions, tourism and retail and Sio thinks Hong Kong’s image as a “shopping heaven” is only attractive to tourists from the mainland. By contrast, the gaming, convention and exhibition sectors in Macau are more appealing to visitors from America, Europe and South East Asia.
With the opening of the Venetian Macau Exhibition Centre, for example, the convention and exhibition industry has gone through a significant change.
International corporations choose to hold their annual meetings in Macau and they also encourage their employers to stay in Macau for a few more days and have fun after the meeting, further illustrating that Macau is on the same track as Las Vegas.
Macau’s thriving convention and exhibition industry can bring consumers to Guangdong: “This is a kind of regional cooperation, there are many possibilities lying ahead,” says Sio.
“We have to recognise that competition will be one result of regional cooperation”, says Sio, adding: “We should consider this thoroughly before taking action. Guangdong is cutting down the low-valued-added-industry to increase its efficiency. Macau, of course, cannot abandon our goal of establishing a successful gaming-tourism city and construct because we have regional cooperation.”
Sio says Macau should first make sure it is well equipped then it should seek help for development and eventually find its true role.

by Zeng Kaifei