Labour force 1
The employment and unemployment figures for the fourth quarter of 2009 are out. While the final figures for the whole year are yet to be made public, we can start gauging the effects on the labour market of the economic slowdown and the changes in the policies for
imported labour.
For the first time since the handover we see a contraction in the total number of employed (Table 1). At its peak, on a yearly basis, in 2008, the total was 65 percent above the 2000 figure. That is a remarkable growth in just eight years, and a result that I think has no precedent, anywhere. Even after the recent reduction, the figures are still impressive: there are, at the end of the period, over 120,000 more employed workers than at the beginning.
Table 2 shows the net absolute contributions of some select sectors for the overall growth. Note that the calculation uses 2004 as the
base year.
Since then, over 100,000 new jobs have been created. With almost 40,000 additional jobs over the period, gambling certainly dwarfs all the other sectors. Together with hotels and restaurants, these sectors account for half of all job creation. The significant contribution of construction – the third net contributor to job growth – has to be considered differently, as many of these jobs will naturally disappear with the completion of the corresponding buildings.
Manufacturing stands out by losing 20,000 jobs in the same period, roughly half of the initial amount. Table 3 puts these changes in perspective. Taking 2000 as the base year (2004 for gambling), the relative growth was especially astonishing in, (you may be in for a surprise) the domestic work sector: its ranks almost tripled. Leaving construction aside, for the reasons referred to above, the clear leader is gaming, whose numbers have almost tripled in just the last five years.
The other major contributors, also in relative terms, have been hospitality and real estate (here aggregated with other business services). No big surprises.

Labour force 2
As a result of what was said in the previous section, the labour resources of the region have become stretched.
The participation rate for men stands at close to 78 percent of the male population and can hardly be increased. The participation rate of women has grown in just the last five years by about 12 percentage points.
These are high values by international standards, for countries with high levels of income.
The age composition of the labour force is also changing, and fast.
Overall figures for the employed are significantly affected by the migration flows in the last few years. But two general trends seem to be in the process of defining themselves.
First, the labour force is aging. In less than a decade, the ratio of those aged below 45 to those aged over 45 went from about 3:1 to 1.7:1. The reduction of that ratio is even more pronounced in the case of the unemployed ranks. There the change has been from 3.15:1 to 1.4:1.
These trends are likely to accentuate, as we are reaching the end of arrivals in the labour market resulting from the growth in births registered
in the 1980’s.
The number of youngsters reaching the labour market will start to decrease – something that starts to be apparent in the figures, at the end of the period – and the numbers of those reaching retirement age will increase.
Particular worrying is the fact that the number of unemployed over 45 has jumped from 25 to more than 40 percent of the total in the same period. The likelihood of them getting a new job decreases with time, in particular if coupled with low levels of qualifications, including here insufficient foreign language skills, which will often be the case.

by José I. Duarte
Economist /Macau Business
Senior Analyst Data source: DSEC
Charts and graphics in our paper edition and MB online browseable