Foreign Direct Investment

The recent economic slowdown and the suspension of a number of construction projects both suggest that the figures for Foreign Direct Investment, in the current year, will also display more conservative behaviour. (Note that the series for this indicator only starts in 2001).
Table 1 shows a rapid convergence between the cumulative flows of FDI in the period and the total stock measures at the end of year. That suggests that the overall growth trend in the aggregate figures is hiding some disinvestment. Given the level of aggregation, the only activities where that feature is globally apparent is in the ‘Others’ category. Not too much can be further said, then, at this point. Another interesting feature is that the cumulative income generated in that period has been, as a rule, above the cumulative flows and is closing in with the value of the total stock. That suggests nice returns, a feature also suggested by the Table 3 (see comments below).
Table 2 shows another interesting pattern. If we calculate the income outflows, based on the yearly flows and the net stock at the end of each period, we see that for most of the period the total income transferred abroad has exceeded, albeit marginally, the amount of income generated in the corresponding year. The only exception is 2007. But that exception is neatly ‘over-compensated’ in 2008.
Let us now get back to the issue of returns on investment, already brushed above. A rough calculation – the ratio between each year’s income and the arithmetic average of the values registered at the beginning and end of the year – points to very good levels of return on the investment. This feature that suggests that the level of taxation, frequently a subject brought to the public attention, does not appear to be a significant obstacle to profitability.

Labour market

The past year has witnessed a notable reversal of some of the trends that characterized the post-gambling-monopoly period. We can summarize its main features in the following tables.
The first one shows how remarkably the labour force has grown. Note, in particular, that in just the last five years of the time series, the number of total workers increased by more than 50%. Changes of equivalent order were registered in both the male and female components of the labour force. That parallel development hides, however, distinct patterns concerning the changes in the participation rate.
As it is a common rule everywhere, the values for male participation rates are consistently higher than the corresponding female values (Table 2): nothing surprising there. Also, as expected, the boom, and rising wages, resulted in increases in the participation rate for all. More people found opportunities for work and more attractive compensations. But those effects were much more pronounced in the female labour force. Again, from its lowest level in 2003, till the end of 2008, the participation rate of women increased by almost eleven percentage points. In practice, that meant that almost one quarter of the non-active female population joined the
labour force in that period, a notable figure.
Table 3, highlights a different feature. It suggests that the recent development of the economy reversed an upward trend for the feminization of the workforce that had been developing for some time. Remember, as a complement to what has been said, that in the same period the overall unemployment rate was more than halved, and that the absolute figures of the unemployed were mostly stable.

by José I. Duarte
Economist /Macau Business
Senior Analyst Data source: DSEC
Charts and graphics in our paper edition and MB online browseable