Macau (MNA) – Analysts from Sanford C. Bernstein and Union Gaming stated that the November gross gaming revenues year-on-year jump of 8.5 per cent slightly exceeded predictions, which previously ranged from as low as 4 per cent – from Bloomberg – to 8 per cent.
Gross gaming revenues in the Macau SAR totalled MOP24.99 billion (US$3.1 billion) in November 2018, up 8.5 per cent year-on-year when compared to the same month last year.
‘The calendar was favorable with one additional Friday. But for the collection of one-time events over the last two months (e.g. Typhoon Mangkhut in September, holiday timing in October, Xi Jinping’s visit in October) each of the last three months, including November, should have been in the high-single-digit range,’ a note from Union Gaming indicated.
According to Union Gaming the average daily gaming revenue in November was about MOP833 million, slightly above the MOP827 million average for 2018 so far.
According to a Bernstein note, November results were assisted by high hold in VIP – about 3.3 per cent to 3.4 per cent – with VIP GGR growth in that month estimated at a 10 per cent yearly rise with several junkets highlighting a rebound in visitation by high-rollers, while mass supposedly went up around 7 per cent yearly.
Union Gaming noted that it had not registered a perceived impact in gaming revenues by the opening of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge (HZMB) on October 24.
‘Despite what we believe could be robust visitation datapoints, we do not believe the bridge has had a material impact on GGR. It will take many quarters, if not years, for the bridge to begin to have a material impact on Macau’s gaming industry and we continue to believe it will most likely be in the form of a more robust MICE market,’ the note explained.
In fact Bernstein believed the Guangdong government decision to urge travel agencies to halt one-day trips to Hong Kong or Macau taking place on weekends and transiting via the HZMB would not harm gaming results as ‘most low-end day trippers do not contribute materially to economic activity in Macau’ and that the alleviation of congestion would in fact assist the industry.
Union Gaming predicted mass market growth in the next months will remain at low double-digit growth with ‘mixed VIP story’ with modest growth, estimating a 7 per cent year-on-year jump on gross gaming revenues in December to around MOP24.2 billion.
Bernstein aimed at a similar growth rate, between 6 to 8 per cent, with the brokerage noting that a contraction in the macro environment in China is creating headwinds for GGR growth in Macau.
