(Xinhua/Xiao Yijiu)

2020 CNY holiday period to be weakest in years – Brokerage

Analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein estimated that due to the drop in visitation resulting from the new coronavirus outbreak, the 2020 Chinese New Year holiday is ‘shaking up to be the weakest Macau has seen in years’.

According to data from the Macao Government Tourism Office (MGTO), the number of visitor arrivals between January 24 and 27 dropped 69 per cent year-on-year to 194,521, with Bernstein considering that the situation is ‘progressing worse than originally expected’.

Meanwhile, the number of Chinese visitors has dropped 75.1 per cent year-on-year to 111,723.

‘Our early January estimate for January and Jan/Feb (combined) of -1 per cent to +2 per cent y/y should not be relied upon (as we pointed out last week). The cancellations and dramatically reduced visitation point to a dreadful outcome for CNY in Macau and we would expect material y/y declines in January and February – however, giving out an estimate at this time is guesswork and not meaningful. The results for Q1 will most certainly be much weaker than originally contemplated,’ analysts.

The brokerage also noted that during the last three years, the CNY period – meaning the 17 total days surrounding the 7-day holiday period – contributed approximately 5.5 per cent of annual gross gaming revenue, with Jan/Feb combined representing 16 per cent 17 per cent of annual revenues.

Several analysts had indicated to Macau News Agency last week that they believed that there will be an economic impact caused on Macau due to the recent outbreak, especially because of a possible reduction in the number of visitors during the Chinese New Year holiday period.

Rating agency Fitch Ratings, per example, had stated that should the Wuhan viral outbreak escalate sharply, macroeconomic effects would initially be felt the most in Asia, and especially in the service sector activity, particularly in fields associated with tourism.

Since the outbreak was first reported, local authorities have so far banned excursions to and from Wuhan, where the virus was detected and cancelled the Lunar New Year celebrations.

Several public buildings, museums, and sports facilities will also be closed and authorities are carrying out disinfection in public places (public markets, transport) and have forced civil servants and casino workers to wear masks, with the possible closing of casinos if the situation gets worse.

Gaming operators and companies have also canceled several events scheduled for the period and suspended regular shows and performances, such as The House of Dancing Water show held by Melco Resorts at City of Dreams.

Local health authorities have confirmed the 7th coronavirus case in Macau yesterday, a 67-year-old female Wuhan resident, with the new virus having infected almost 4,500 people and killed 106 people in mainland China.

Since Monday local authorities started requesting that anyone who comes from Hubei province or has traveled to the province on the 14 days before to present a medical certificate issued by a medical institution, proving that he is not a carrier of the infection with the new coronavirus.

Health inquiries and body temperature checks are also being conducted to visitors entering the city.

Yesterday authorities noted that no one from Hubei had managed to provide a health certificate approved by health authorities and therefore no one from the province had managed to enter the city since the new requirements were put in place.

Tourists from Hubei that had entered Macau were given the option of leaving the city or remaining in Macau but under isolation for 14 days.

Local police authorities helped 144 tourists from Hubei to exit the city, with a total of four tourists – two men and two women, namely, father and daughter; mother and son – from Hubei now in isolation at the Youth Hostel of Hác-Sá.

According to local authorities, around 500 tourists from Hubei were still in the SAR as of yesterday.