CBOT agricultural futures in upward trend

CBOT agricultural futures were in an uptrend in the past week as a result of sliding world’s grain stock and strong market demand.

Chicago-based research company AgResource maintains a bullish outlook for agricultural futures based on surging world demand and a declining U.S. dollar.

CBOT corn futures ended the week flat. Both the bulls and bears lack meaningful leverage between 5.40-5.70 dollars. Supply continues to dominate price direction, but this should change following the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report.

Corn’s outlook is bullish on historically tight stocks and another year of China importing 30-36 million metric tons from all sources. Brazil’s interior corn market is quoted at 8.30-8.50 dollars per bushel into yearend. Spot European corn settled this week at 8.55 dollars per bushel on Friday. A massive shift in world feed demand is imminent as only the United States has the inventory necessary to fill the supply gap left by Brazil’s year-over-year decline in production. U.S. and world exporter corn stocks/use will determine price, as a new record low in world corn exporter stock/use ratios is forecast.

Wheat rallied driven by threatening drought that has plagued major wheat producing areas in North America. Strong world demand is also noted.

World ocean freight rates continued to climb on ship shortages and strong demand. It will be years before world ocean freight rates return to normal amid the building demand profile and lack of new ship builds. AgResource predicts that world freight costs will stay elevated for years to come.

Soybean futures settled higher. Tightening old crop supplies along with massive soymeal cash trade in China will likely underpin the complex early next week.

AgResource looks for China to become an active buyer of U.S. soybeans in the next two weeks. China has imported record tonnages of Brazilian soybeans and is forecast to import 40-43 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in 2021-2022.

The weekly soybean chart shows strong support at 13-13.25 dollars for November futures with an estimated 32 percent of the U.S. soybean seeded area embroiled in drought.