José I. Duarte Economist Media reports suggest that the rise in residential property prices has stopped. According to some, the trend may even have reversed. Some cooling of the residential property market could be expected in the current circumstances; but it is too soon to suggest that the issues raised by the rapid price growth in recent years are over. Two main factors underpin the evolution of demand in that market. They are changes in available income and population growth. As they rise, demand will also rise. More people will be looking for more flats and, possibly, bigger and better flats. In a free or relatively free market, developers will build according to the expectations they have about these changes and, in an ideal world, competition will keep prices in check and ensure that the types of buildings are adequate for the requirements of their buyers. In a place like Macau, with physical limits to urban growth and subject to significant external demand, two other factors weigh mightily on the local property market. They are the nature and contents of government policies, namely those concerning zoning arrangements and construction guidelines, and the ease of property acquisition, both legally and financially, by non-residents. The economic and demographic trends of the last 10 years were compounded by the attractiveness of holding local assets revealed by many non-residents and the governments aloof approach to the matter. It is no surprise that prices went up and many developers focused mainly on properties aimed at external buyers, with or without purely speculative aims. All that is well summed up by a twelve-fold rise in the average price for each square metre of sold property in that period. Under these circumstances, it is only natural that the recent changes in casino revenues and, as a result, gross domestic product, dropped cold water on the prospects of some. Suddenly, growth expectations are shrinking and uncertainty is mounting. Earlier confident predictions that this will last a couple of months and then its back to business as usual are ringing increasingly hollow. The Chinese economy has slowed down; its credit markets look increasingly uncertain, and the government has taken a decidedly more muscular approach to illicit flows of money all these hit strongly at the leading sector and its revenues. Reviewing expansion plans has become a priority; growth expectations have to be reassessed, and the operating model itself is under scrutiny. Estimating income and population growth has become less reliable. A new government is in place and there are unknowns there, too. The expectation that flows of money from the Mainland could only go up and up forever were briskly cut down. Has all this somehow resolved the residential problem affecting many local residents? Far from it, it provides a brief respite, at most! Annual figures for the average flat price in 2014 show that just repaying the principal would take more than 40 years of a median wage. No real relief is yet in sight.
Top Stories
RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR
OPINION – Tightening the screws
In only a few weeks week we managed to see several blows to the gut...
【時事評論】忽視民意錯難返
和暖3月天的澳門,突然來了一場大風暴。特區政府月中推出「2021保就業、穩經濟、顧民生計劃」冀振興內部經濟,卻因受惠對象對錯焦、操作過於煩瑣、公平性、效用成疑等原因,反對、不滿此起彼落,不分派別,政府逼著暫緩、改良;更有人發起遊行示威,似乎聲勢浩大,政府「彈弓手」先批準遊行,後又以不達防疫要求為名,臨時叫停,原定遊行當日還派大量警力封鎖塔石,拉走12名仍到場人士,事件以最不愉快方式暫告一段落,然民怨未消,對新屆特區政府剛建立起來的管治威信,作一記重擊。封塔石禁遊行容易,直面群眾民意難,其實一點都不難,只要有胸襟、誠意、有商有量....
【時事評論】批判性思維的三招
多年前,我有幸聽到了已故的英國著名教育學家Harvey Goldstein的主題演講。他冷靜且禮貌地借用外科手術技巧,解剖並摧毀了當時英國政府的學校評估政策,成爲同類演説的典範。透過提出、分析、辯解、質疑、評估、批評和判斷有關政策,他權衡當中的利弊、影響及後果,揭露政府虛假、失誤和潛在的意識形態,將一概問題陳列在解剖桌上並逐一擊破。他就如同一名盡職盡責的珠寶商,解構真實構造:陳規舊習,運用高度清晰貶義詞匯包裝。這場演講令人享受其中。
【主編前言】施政失策 民怨堆積
去年初新冠肺炎疫情初現,特區政府果斷採取一連串防疫措施,力阻疫情在本澳出現,在疫情全球蔓延下,令澳門能保持零本地感染,亦令澳門居民對政府抱持高信任度和高評價。在去年疫情期間,政府推出兩輪振興經濟舒民困措施,亦獲市民認同。