Gaming results to fall 3pct y-on-y in 2019 – Brokerage

Analysts from Sanford C. Bernstein estimate that 2019 will see a 3 per cent year-on-year decrease, with VIP results falling 19 per cent but with mass increasing 11 per cent.

This means the brokerage is expecting 2019 to finish with about MOP293.7 billion (US$36.4 billion) in gross gaming revenues when compared to the MOP302.8 billion recorded in 2018.

Between January and October of this year so far a total of MOP251.3 billion in gaming revenues were registered, a 1.8 per cent fall from the same period last year.

‘In Q3, Macau GGR declined – 4.1 per cent y/y with VIP GGR declining -24 per cent (worse than our prior estimate of -21 per cent), and Mass GGR grew approximately +14 per cent (which is better than our estimate of +11 per cent). We now estimate Q4E GGR to be -7 per cent (VIP -26 per cent and Mass +9 per cent),’ Benrstein analysts indicated.

‘Operators remain cautious about recovery prospects for Macau gaming in Q4, but are
optimistic that VIP deceleration is stabilizing and (close to) hitting a bottom. While events in Hong Kong have not had a material impact on GGR in our view, recent escalation of activities have had a greater impact than in Q3.’

However, the brokerage predicted gaming results will improve next year and see an overall 8 per cent year-on-year rise, with VIP going up 6 per cent mass rising 9 per cent.

‘We remain positive on the longer-term outlook for Macau gaming, which will continue to be led by growth in Mass (and Premium Mass in particular),’ Bernstein added.