An analyst survey conducted by Bloomberg predicts that Macau’s gross gaming revenue will see their third consecutive year-on-year drop of more than 90 per cent in June.
According to the agency, June could see a 95 per cent year-on-year plunge, with forecasts ranging between 80 to 96 per cent, after the 96.8 per cent and 93.2 per cent year-on-year drops recorded in April and May, respectively.
For July forecasts range from a 33 per cent to 95 per cent fall, with 2020 expected to see a 38 to 65 per cent fall.
Meanwhile, analysts from Citi and Jefferies expect a selective and gradual reopening of borders, with low gaming results likely continue until the mainland Chinese government lifts the outbound travel restrictions and the mainland Chinese, Hong Kong and Macau governments lift the quarantine rules.
Analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein maintained that the local gaming recovery is contingent upon the pandemic being controlled and travel into Macau resuming to normal levels; China’s economy not faltering, with the central government providing required financial stimulus.
If travel restrictions are removed and the individual visa scheme is reinstated by Chinese authorities, the brokerage predicts gaming revenues could stabilise and even grow again this year, with a strong recovery in 2021.
The brokerage also maintained that recovery in the Fujian and Guangdong provinces was among the fastest in China, with the two provinces accounting for 25 per cent of all gaming revenues in the SAR.