This week, the much-awaited development plan for the Greater Bay Area has been released. It will be formally presented later this week.
Inevitably, a document of this nature is a complex one, both for what it explicitly says and for what is implicit. Time will test it and bring about its intended (and unintended) consequences. From what has been published by the official news agency, which we follow more closely here, a few observations are possibly justified from the outset.
The document outlines two phases of implementation. One between now and 2022 (that is, in just less than three full calendar years), the other until 2035. The objectives are nothing less than (extremely) ambitious. “By 2022, the framework should essentially be formed for an international first-class bay area and world-class city cluster that is vibrant and highly innovative with an optimized industrial structure, a smooth flow of various factors and a pleasant ecological environment”.
Remember this cluster includes two special administrative regions and two special economic zones, plus a few other areas subject to special legal régimes. They encompass three different legal, political and administrative systems, and cities with distinct levels of wealth and development. Add to the menu noticeable environmental problems, naturally competing interests, and somewhat upsetting economic trends. One cannot but fear there is some exuberant optimism at work here. The level of coordination and synergy implicit in the statement quoted above is not, to say the least, an easily achieved or guaranteed outcome.
By 2035, the region should have attained very sophisticated levels of economic and social conditions, “mainly supported by innovation, with its economic and technological strengths vastly increased and its international competitiveness and influence further strengthened.” Further, “markets (…) should basically be highly connected, with very effective and efficient flow of various resources and factors of production”. “People should become wealthier; the level of social civility should reach new heights”, while “the ecological environment should be effectively protected, and an international first-class bay area for living, working and traveling should be fully developed”. That would be outstanding, by any standard.
It is not wrong to be ambitious, and the progressive integration of the region can certainly increase its (already high) economic potential and attractiveness. But only a careful analysis of the full document, once it becomes available will tell how much of this talk is marketing hype and how much stands the sift of sober analysis.
