Macau’s economy likely to recover in Nov-Dec due to large-scale events and stable Covid-19 situation – Association

By Therese Tu

Macau’s economy is likely to rebound in November and December due to the opening of large-scale events and stable pandemic situation, according to the Macau Economic Prosperity Index Report published by the Macau Economic Association.

The report says that large-scale events in November and December – including tyhe 68th Macau Grand Prix, 21st Macau Food Festival, Tour Macau FUN Fair, 2021 Macau Light Festival, Light Up Macau Drone Gala – will bring some “hope” to the local economy.

Due to the continuing stabilized pandemic situation and increasing rate of vaccination, the number of tourists is expected to gradually increase, helping to restore the vitality of Macau’s economy.

The research group says that the recent outbreak of COVID-19 in mainland China will not have a significant impact on Macau since the official figure shows that most of the tourists are from Guangdong Province, especially the nine cities in the Greater Bay Area.

So far the cases in mainland China are mainly from the northern part of China, despite the total number of local cases in mainland China is increasing recently.

The number of tourists has been on a rise recently. In the first week of November, the number of single-day tourists has reached the level of 30,000.

The research team estimates that the number of visitors can be restored to about 700,000 to 800,000, which is approximately 25-28 per cent of the average monthly tourist volume during the same period of the past five years before the pandemic (2015-2019) if the pandemic situation in Guangdong and Macau is stable.

After Zhuhai Government adjusted its entry policy on October 19, the Gongbei Port immediately ushered in a peak in tourist flows. The number of tourists on Oct 19 rebounded to nearly 14,000 and has since remained at the level of 20,000.

Macau’s macroeconomy has suffered a serious setback because of the pandemic outbreak at the end of September.

The economic prosperity index of Macau in September and October was respectively 2.8 and 2.7 points, which are close to the lower edge of the “under-optimal” range in the indicator system.

The research team estimates that the average monthly gross gaming revenue for November and December will be approximately 7.5 to 9 billion Mop.

Data shows that the gross gaming revenue in the first week of November reached MOP1.65 billion and the monthly gross gaming revenue of 2021 is approximately 35-40 per cent of that of the same period of the past five years.

The local prosperity index will show a bottom-out trend from November to January next year if the current recovery speed continues. The forecast value falls between 3.0-3.2 points, maintaining the “under-optimal” level.