Opinion | Uneven recovery

The growth of the gambling sector has enabled many businesses to grow in its wake. Some of them are more specifically aimed at tourists, as it is the case of the hotel business. (Albeit many people would be surprised by how many locals use hotel facilities, but to look into that issue is not the purpose here.) 

Other sectors cater to both residents and visitors. In different ways and with various intensities, they rely on the expenses made by those who visit the region. Such is the case of restaurants and retail shops, for example. Several success stories were built on the growing influx of people in a mostly continuous way for the last fifteen years. 

Those gains were evident in retail sales. Rising population, number of visitors, and incomes meant the retail business ballooned. The activities were not immune to the 2014-2015 shock, but most segments are recovering fast. That is especially true for the last two full years, 2017 and 2018. In real terms last year, total retail sales were  63 percent above their 2014 peak. 

But for some segments, the recovery has been less impressive. That is particularly true for activities where internal consumption has a more significant share. That is the case of vehicles, including both cars and motorcycles, and household goods, such as appliances or home fuels. In these segments, the recovery is yet to make itself noticed.

That is possibly easier to explain in the case of vehicles. Some saturation of the public roads and a rise in the total cost of ownership may explain the contraction. Sales were in 2018 about one-third less than they were in 2014. The household-related progression is, however, is slightly surprising if we bear in mind that the population keeps growing.

Other segments, where the impact of visitors is usually more significant, recovered faster. The sales figures for some stood at the end of last year, much above those seen in the previous peak year. Some numbers are striking. Clothing, cosmetics, and leather goods were up by figures above 50 percent when measured in volume. In the case of communication equipment, they more than doubled in the period. 

The picture for other segments is less straightforward. In some cases, visitors seem to be spending less, which partially the effect of the growth in their absolute numbers. Summing up: retail is recovering but sending more mixed signals than usual.