The European Commission forecasts that the unemployment rate in Portugal will fall to 5.7% this year, from 6.6% in 2021, and to 5.5% in 2023, according to the spring macroeconomic forecasts released on Monday.
The estimate from Brussels is more optimistic than that of the ministry of finance, which in the report underlying the draft budget forecasted an unemployment rate of 6% this year.
The Brussels statisticians point out that the unemployment rate fell to 6.6% in 2021, supported by employment support measures and the economic recovery, improving further to 5.6% in February 2022, reaching the lowest in 20 years.
They also pointed out that the employment rate reached an all-time high in late 2021 and early 2022, even though hours worked remained below the pre-pandemic level.
However, it considers that as the pandemic employment support measures end in the second quarter of this year, the unemployment rate should improve at a much slower pace over the forecast horizon.
The European Commission said the recovery in foreign tourism is likely to have a greater impact on hours worked than on employment.
