Total investment to fall 9.5pct in 2020 – UM

In its recently published 2020 macroeconomic forecast, the University of Macau (UM) Centre for Macau Studies and Department of Economics predicts that total investment in the city will drop 9.5 per cent year-on-year this year.

UM’s calculations project a possible gross domestic product (GDP) decline by 3.7 per cent in 2020, ranging from a pessimistic forecast of a 12.0 per cent downturn to an optimistic forecast of a 4.7 per cent rise.

‘China and the United States have just signed the ‘phase-one’ trade deal to avoid the escalation of economic tension. However, the underlying disagreement has not been completely resolved. For China’s domestic economy, faced with debt accumulation and a possible real estate bubble, the central government could only try accommodative economic policies cautiously […] In an uncertain external environment, Macao’s economy is expected to continue to slow down in 2020.’ the report noted.

Macau GDP progression from 2015 and until the third quarter of 2019

Nevertheless, local private consumption spending is expected to grow steadily at a rate of 2.5 per cent, with the local inflation rate, as measured by the change in the Composite Consumer Price Index, should steady at around 2.6 per cent this year

Local service exports are expected to contract by 4.3 per cent while service imports could decline by 0.5 per cent in 2020.

UM also predicts the local unemployment rate should remain at 1.9 per cent in 2020 at 2.6 per cent in 2020 just for local residents, with the average monthly employment earnings at MOP16,859.

The local economy entered a recession last year, going down 3.8 per cent in the first quarter, 2.2 per cent in the second quarter and 4.5 per cent in the third quarter.