Union Gaming: CNY seasonality remains intact

By
macaubusinessdaily

The growing number of visitors to Macau during the traditional holiday season – Chinese New Year – has made the gaming floors busier. According to Union Gaming Research Macau, the traditional seasonality trends remain intact and analysts see ‘a material uptick in mass market GGR [gross gaming revenue] on a sequential weekly basis.’
Union Gaming analysts said in a report released on Sunday that casino foot traffic grew markedly on Friday – the day after Chinese New Year – and again on Saturday. The analysts perceived that this is the first time that mass and premium mass casino floors have felt busy since October’s Golden Week during the National Day holiday and they also pointed out an increase in mass and premium mass minimum bets, which are ‘clearly up relative to the last many months and this has not deterred demand at all during the holiday period.’
‘This suggests that we should see a material uptick in mass market GGR on a sequential weekly basis […] this means that traditional seasonality trends remain intact despite the ongoing softness in general demand,’ the report reads.
Grant Govertsen and Felicity Chiang, analysts at Union Gaming, also expect the last 10 days of February “should tell a meaningful gross gaming revenue story”, since the mass market seasonality trends are intact they assume that VIP seasonality should also remain intact.
The Union Gaming team said “while impossible to gauge whether or not there will be material upside to consensus expectations of a gross gaming revenue decline of up to 40 per cent in February, we believe there is little risk to the downside (bad luck notwithstanding).”
According to the latest statistics form the Public Security Police, from February 19 (the first day of Chinese New Year) to February 22, there were a total of 609,217 visitors to Macau (including non-resident workers and students), a 3.2 per cent increase compared to the same period last year. Of these, 443,421 were from Mainland China, representing a 6.7 per cent increase year-on-year.
Union Gaming says visitation has increased materially on a sequential basis compared to weekly trends over the last many months, giving the analysts confidence that GGR expectations will be met or exceeded in February.