These documents provide useful points of reference. It should be noted,
however, that they will seldom say something that strays too much from the conventional,
or that is strongly opposed by the government of the country or territory under
observation.
That is, the report is not just a technical document. It is also a political one, in more sense
than one. It will never be overtly “politically incorrect” for the target’s administration.
Also, much of the information will be obtained from the administration, and the policy
topics will be discussed with the concerned officials. Little of what they state (or the way it is stated) will be ‘shocking.’
But a lot may be also be said or suggested between the lines. The report identifies and recommends three general policy priorities. Quote: “First, higher public investment would support the diversification agenda while further targeted social spending would foster inclusion. Second, a medium/long-term fiscal framework would facilitate judicious and efficient use of gaming-dependent fiscal resources.
Third, the exchange rate peg continues to serve Macao SAR well and should be maintained.” The second and third priorities are of a more technical nature and concern mainly the fiscal and monetary aspects of the economy.
The keywords are prudence and stability. It is the first that is especially interesting. First, because it brings up the sempiternal topic of diversification. Second, because it raises, however lightly, the issues of inequality in the distribution of the fruits of economic growth.
What the report says about diversification is sensible. But it is a very narrow view of
diversification.
It means essentially moving away from the dependence on the so-called VIP
sector and putting greater emphasis on entertainment and family-oriented facilities. About
social inclusion, the main focus is on house affordability. These topics are surely reasonable, but they are not really new or too daring.
They might still imply lower levels of growth and different patterns of wealth distribution.
Such changes may go against the interests of those who benefited more from past
circumstances. However, implementation hurdles fall beyond the scope of this type of
report. If someone is willing to discuss them is another matter, but that might be what
matters most for those policies to succeed.
*Economist, permanent contributor to MNA
